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Prediction for CME (2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-20T14:42Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24321/-1
CME Note: Bright, wide and asymmetrical shape CME seen to the NE in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The eruption is characterized by an erupting sigmoid/S-shaped structure centered around N27E20, though dimming and an EUV wave signature is limited to longitudes closer to 30-50 degrees east. On arrival signature from Tarik Salman, LASSOS: background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s)-a possible reason for this ICME not to have an associated shock. The start of the magnetic flux rope likely coincides with the enhancement in the total field and drop in density and the end of it is around 2023-04-24T09Z (based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent)
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T11:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-03-20T19:05Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 815
Longitude (deg): E028
Latitude (deg): N17
Half-angular width (deg): 35

Notes: Limited imagery for fit, giving lower confidence. Glancing impact likely.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 54.92 hour(s)
Difference: -1.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-03-21T02:15Z

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